[online] Available at: This page was last edited on 3 May 2021, at 22:53. As in 2012, 2016 turnout also varied considerably by students’ academic fields of study. Democracy and Democracies in Crisis. This includes adults that are of legal voting age while excluding ineligible felons. This article poses a multifaceted perspective on the effect of education levels on voter turnout. But first, a quick history lesson. This year, President Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic is expected to be key. That's an increase of President Barack Obama's reelection 2012, when 58.6 percent of eligible voters turned out, according to the U.S. 270 to win. [15] This study demonstrated the effect of rising enrollment in college education circa 1980s, which resulted in an increase in voter turnout. Just 83% of black voters ages 18-29 voted for Clinton, as compared to 87% ages 30-44 and 90% of those aged 45+. Key Trump vs Biden battlegrounds – and what the polls say. Their VEP does not include adjustments for felons (see p.13). The age difference is associated with youth voter turnout. The Center for American Women and Politics summarizes how this trend can be measured differently both in terms of proportion of voters to non-voters, and in terms of the bulk number of votes cast. One may contend that ease of access – and not education level – may be an indicator of voting behavior. Several programs to increase the rates of voting among young people – such as MTV's "Rock the Vote" (founded in 1990) and the "Vote or Die" initiative (starting in 2004) – may have marginally increased turnouts of those between the ages of 18 and 25 to vote. What we know... Around 138 million Americans voted in the 2016 presidential election.From Business Insider.. The 2016 youth electorate (ages 18-29) was 61% White, 15% African-American,17% Latino, 5% Asian-American, and 3% other. Voter turnout in United States presidential elections has historically been higher than the turnout for midterm elections.[1]. The Social Science Journal, 37(1), pp. Gallego, A. The Washington Post reported that at least 101.9 million people voted through mail-in ballots or at early polling stations in their states. ", "Opinion | Why the 2016 election may produce the largest gender gap in history", "2004G - United States Elections Project", "2020g - United States Elections Project", "Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections | The American Presidency Project", "2012 Election Turnout Dips Below 2008 and 2004 Levels: Number Of Eligible Voters Increases By Eight Million, Five Million Fewer Votes Cast", "Voter Turnout Data - United States Elections Project", "Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections", http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/democracy-and-democracies-crisis, https://isnblog.ethz.ch/politics/democracy-and-democracies-in-crisis, https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2017/09/the-rural-higher-education-crisis/541188/, https://www.cnn.com/2017/10/10/politics/democrats-age-problem/index.html, https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2014/10/29/why-young-people-dont-vote, elections in which the winner lost the popular vote, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Voter_turnout_in_United_States_presidential_elections&oldid=1021295569, United States presidential elections statistics, Articles that may contain original research from September 2020, All articles that may contain original research, Articles with unsourced statements from June 2020, Articles with incomplete citations from November 2020, Articles with disputed statements from December 2019, Articles lacking in-text citations from August 2019, Articles with dead external links from December 2019, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License. Of those who voted, 80.5 percent voted for President Obama and 19.5 percent voted for Gov. Estimates show more than 58 percent of eligible voters went to the polls during the 2016 election, ... noting that 41,000 fewer people voted there in 2016 than in 2012. In 1889, when the Wyoming constitution was drafted in preparation for statehood, it included women's suffrage. Younger Voters Were More Diverse than Older Voters in 2016 Among all 2016 voters in each age group, the percentage who identified as a member of each racial/ethnic group Political leaders of all ideologies should take note. Harder and Krosnick (2008) contend that some of the reasons for this may be due to "differences in motivation or ability (sometimes both)" (Harder and Krosnick, 2008), or that less wealthy people have less energy, time, or resources to allot towards voting. [12] As such, since most candidates running for office are pervasively over the age of 35 years,[13] youth may not be actively voting in these elections because of a lack of representation or visibility in the political process. Some argue that "age is an important factor in understanding voting blocs and differences" on various issues. [4], The fact that a man was now legally allowed to vote did not necessarily mean he routinely voted. By 2004, ineligible voters constituted nearly 10%. A Psychological Analysis of the Causes of Voter Turnout. Overall voter turnout – defined as the share of adult U.S. citizens who cast ballots – was 61.4% in 2016, a share similar to 2012 but below the 63.6% who say they voted in 2008. UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, And Capstones. election infrastructure) at play. [2] Older states with property restrictions dropped them, namely all but Rhode Island, Virginia and North Carolina by the mid-1820s. Thus Wyoming was also the first full state to grant women the right to vote. [5] Tax-paying qualifications remained in only five states by 1860 – Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Delaware and North Carolina. "[8] The study compared reasons given by male and female non-voters and found that female non-voters were more likely to cite general indifference to politics and ignorance or timidity regarding elections than male non-voters, and that female voter were less likely to cite fear of loss of business or wages. Gained 6 seats +6. 22% voted Lib Dem, while 8% moved to the Labour party. (2010). If fewer people of color vote in 2016, however, … Gershman, C. (2018). Early 19th century: Universal white male suffrage. In fact, they argue that "Millennials are turning out at similar rates to the previous two generations when they face their first elections."[14]. Republican Rutherford B Hayes thwarted Democrat Samuel J Tilden in the centennial election by the narrowest of margins. About 13 percent of non-voters named that as a reason for not voting in 2012, according to U.S. Census data on turnout released this month. Twenty-five percent say it’s why they didn’t vote in 2016, making it by far the most commonly cited rationale. Wealthier people tend to vote at higher rates. Political leaders of all ideologies should take note. About 139 million Americans voted in the November 2016 elections, around 60.2 percent of the eligible voting population. No new states had property qualifications, although three had adopted tax-paying qualifications – Ohio, Louisiana and Mississippi, of which only in Louisiana were these significant and long-lasting. In all presidential elections prior to 1980, the voter turnout rate for women was lower than the rate for men. Collected by Edison Research for the National Election Pool, a consortium of ABC News, the Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News and NBC News. How 2020 compares to other high-turnout presidential elections. Each of these suffrage laws expanded the body of eligible voters, and because women were less likely to vote than men, each of these expansions created a decline in voter turnout rates, culminating with the extremely low turnouts in the 1920 and 1924 elections after the passage of the Nineteenth Amendment. A constant consideration is voter turnout, which was at a 20-year low in 2016. The voter survey is based on questionnaires completed by 24,537 voters leaving 350 voting places throughout the United States on November 8, 2016, including 4,398 telephone interviews with early and absentee voters. [20] Ineligible voters are not evenly distributed across the country, roughly 15% of California's voting-age population is ineligible to vote – which confounds comparisons of states. Women were 13 percentage points more likely than men to have voted for Clinton (54% among women, 41% among men). Our 2016 projection based on the same data was that youth voter turnout that year would be 45%-48%. (1943). Americans have already cast more than half the total votes counted in 2016, early voting statistics show. "Only 30 percent of millennials think it's 'essential' to live in a democracy, compared to 72 percent of those born before World War II" (Gershman, 2018). Only 28 percent of people reported voting on Election Day — less than half of the 60 percent who did so in 2016. [9] Others argue that young people are typically "plagued" by political apathy and thus do not have strong political opinions. Smith and Tolbert's (2005) research reiterates that the presence of ballot initiatives and portals within a state have a positive effect on voter turnout. It may be surmised that an increase of state investment in electoral infrastructure facilitates and education policy and programs results in increase voter turnout among youth. Berman, D. and Johnson, R. (2000). voter turnout and participation tends to be high in instances where registration has been initiated by the state and the number of electoral parties is small. Elections Project, The Hill reported. [full citation needed] Considering that one of the critical tenets of liberal democracy is voting, the idea that millennials are denouncing[dubious – discuss] the value of democracy is arguably an indicator of the loss of faith in the importance of voting. The impact of age, education, political knowledge and political context on voter turnout. The Washington Post reported that at least 101.9 million people voted through mail-in ballots or at early polling stations in their states. Voter turnout soared during the 1830s, reaching about 80% of the adult male population in the 1840 presidential election. About 13 percent of non-voters named that as a reason for not voting in 2012, according to U.S. Census data on turnout released this month. [citation needed]. Age, ambition, and the local charter: a study in voting behavior. Voting is not a partisan issue but represents a fundamental act of citizenship. Republican validated voters reported choosing Trump by a margin of 92% to 4%, while Democrats supported Clinton by 94% to 5%. Another correlated finding in his study (Snyder, 2011) was that education is less important as a predictor of voter turnout in states than tend to spend more on education. We are just days away from finding out whether Donald Trump will win a second term as US president, or if Joe Biden will take the reins for the next four years. Presumably larger, more urban cities will have greater budgets/resources/infrastructure dedicated to elections, which is why youth may have higher turnout rates in those cities versus more rural areas. Biden won 81,283,098 votes, or 51.3 percent of the votes cast. For 2016, the sum of the individual county numbers, for counties with data in the US is 185,714,229--a number 15% greater than the CPS estimate for the same year and election. Another potential reason may be that wealthier people believe that they have more at stake if they don't vote than those with less resources or income. American Psychological Association. That's 73 percent of the total votes cast in 2016. There also were large differences in voter preferences by gender, age and marital status. Twenty-five percent say it’s why they didn’t vote in 2016, making it by far the most commonly cited rationale. However, this was not true for political knowledge; education levels were not a signifier of political knowledge. Educational attainment is perhaps the best predictor of voter turnout, and in the 2008 election, those holding advanced degrees were three times more likely to vote than those with less than high school education. Thus, it can be surmised that those of younger ages may not be inclined to vote during elections. One study found that potential young voters are more willing to commit to voting when they see pictures of younger candidates running for elections/office or voting for other candidates, surmising that young Americans are "voting at higher and similar rates to other Americans when there is a candidate under the age of 35 years running". They can flip either red (Republican) or blue (Democrat) and therefore help decide the election. https://www.cnn.com/2016/11/11/politics/popular-vote-turnout-2016 Only half (52%) of those who voted leave in 2016 and Labour in 2017, stuck with the Labour party in 2019. [6], Another innovative strategy for increasing voter participation and input followed. However, based on early results from the 2016 Presidential election, just over 130 million of them voted … Popular Vote. 65,853,625 votes (48.0%) 62,985,106 votes (45.9%) Net change +6 Trump. In the 2020 election, 159,633,396 people voted. Seven electors voted for someone other than their party’s candidate. These parties systematically sought out potential voters and brought them to the polls. [19] In 1972, noncitizens and ineligible felons (depending on state law) constituted about 2% of the voting-age population. The polls suggest Mr Biden will be the victor, but they suggested the same for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and everyone knows what happened there. Women were granted the right to vote in Wyoming in 1869, before the territory had become a full state in the union. They estimate that as a percent of eligible voters, turnout was: 2000, 54.2%; in 2004 60.4%; 2008 62.3%; and 2012 57.5%. Donald J. Trump Trump. The percentage data for 2012 and 2016 voting are laid out below in Table 2. How many people voted in the 2016 US election? The site's data on turnout as percentage of eligible voters (VEP), is slightly higher and similar to BPC: 2000 55.3%, 2004 60.7%, 2008 62.2%, 2012 58.6%. Lost 6 seats –6. In Rhode Island, the Dorr Rebellion of the 1840s demonstrated that the demand for equal suffrage was broad and strong, although the subsequent reform included a significant property requirement for any resident born outside of the United States. McDonald, Michael, United States Elections Project. In big swing states, there tends to be a large number of electoral college votes for the taking. Five states – Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Oregon – had turnout rates exceeding 70 percent. Here is what you need to know about voter turnout and the 2020 vote. Though youth in larger (read: urban) cities tend to be more educated than those in rural areas (Marcus & Krupnick, 2017), perhaps there is an external variable (i.e. While this historic expansion of rights resulted in significant increases in the eligible voting population and may have contributed to the increases in the proportion of votes cast for president as a percentage of the total population during the 1870s, there does not seem to have been a significant long-term increase in the percentage of eligible voters who turn out for the poll. [23] The BPC 2012 vote count is low because their document was written just after the 2012 election, before final counts were in. A theory of human motivation. There are countless factors that help swing an election. Four years ago, President Trump won by 306 to 232. However, free black men lost voting rights in several states during this period. Notes: *“DK/REF/No 2012 vote” includes those who did not recall their 2012 vote, refused to answer about their 2012 vote, or said they did not vote in 2012. A whopping 83 percent of eligible voters turned out for the 1876 election, Business Insider reports. But in the preceding decades, several states had passed laws supporting women's suffrage. [17], Race and ethnicity has had an effect on voter turnout in recent years, with data from recent elections such as 2008 showing much lower turnout among people identifying as Hispanic or Asian ethnicity than other voters (see chart to the right). Sorry, there was a problem with your subscription. 2016 U.S. presidential election: general election voter turnout, by state. The graph of voter turnout percentages shows a dramatic decline in turnout over the first two decades of the twentieth century, ending in 1920 when the Nineteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution granted women the right to vote across the United States. Age, income, and educational attainment are significant factors affecting voter turnout. Based on this article, one may surmise that education has become a more powerful predictor of civic participation, discriminating more between voters and non-voters. Making the estimates of noncitizens and disfranchized felons has been carried out mostly by Professor Michael McDonald and data are published in the U.S. Older people, as always, were more likely to vote than younger people. In 2016, 138,847,000 votes were cast, representing some 60.1% of the voting eligible population, according to the United States Elections Project. Vote Share Net percentage change in seats +/- % Party. We will focus solely on the voting-eligible population or VEP. Biden received about 81 million votes, Trump about 74 million votes, and other candidates (including Jo Jorgensen and Howie Hawkins) about 3 million votes. Most significantly, however, 11% of female non-voters in the survey cited a "Disbelief in woman's voting" as the reason they did not vote. President Trump has cast doubt on the security of mail-in voting, but there is no evidence to back up his claims. The number of female voters has exceeded the number of male voters in every presidential election since 1964..."[16] This gender gap has been a determining factor in several recent presidential elections, as women have been consistently about 15% more likely to support the candidate of the Democratic Party than the Republican candidate in each election since 1996. The Atlantic. In addition, we are projecting that once all votes are counted, youth turnout may rise to 53%-56%. It’s notable that even the early youth turnout estimate for 2020 is higher than the projected estimate from 2016. With six days left to go until Election Day, more than 71 million early votes had been cast. However, "this was not true for political knowledge";[15] a rise in education levels did not have any impact in identifying those with political knowledge (a signifier of civic engagement) until the 1980s election, when college education became a distinguishing factor in identifying civic participation. Hillary Clinton Clinton. Gallego (2010) also contends that voter turnout tends to be higher in localities where voting mechanisms have been established and are easy to operate – i.e. The United States Elections Project, by Michael McDonald calculates VEP including citizenship and adjustments for felons. At the 2016 election, 245.5 million Americans were of voting age, but only 157.5 million said they registered to vote, according to the US Census Bureau. Why Do People Vote? The most significant difference in voting patterns among people 50-plus is seen in multicultural communities. 525–549. The historical trends in voter turnout in the United States presidential elections have been determined by the gradual expansion of voting rights from the initial restriction to white male property owners aged 21 or older in the early years of the country's independence, to all citizens aged 18 or older in the mid-20th century. While voters ages 50-64 preferred Ayotte by 1 percentage point (49 percent vs. 48 percent), those 65 and older went to Hassan (50 percent vs. 49 percent). The gradual expansion of the right to vote from only property-owning men to include all white men over 21 was an important movement in the period from 1800 to 1830. In 2016, students in the social sciences voted at a rate of 53.2 percent; students in the STEM fields voted at a rate of 43.6 percent. Voter turnout in 2020 was the highest in 120 years when measured as a percentage of the voting-eligible population: 66.7 percent. Only Maine and Nebraska have a proportional voting system. Why do we vote ?. Education is another factor considered to have a major impact on voter turnout rates. The income correlation may be because of a correlation between income and educational attainment, rather than a direct effect of income. 63%). A number of long-standing trends in presidential elections either reversed or stalled in 2016, as black voter turnout decreased, white turnout increased and the nonwhite share of the U.S. electorate remained flat since … Voting Eligible Population is an attempt to make an even more precise definition of the population of people who have a legal right to vote—potential voters. "In every presidential election since 1980, the proportion of eligible female adults who voted has exceeded the proportion of eligible male adults who voted [...]. Sixty-three percent of the U.S. civilian voting age population, 140,114,502 million Americans, voted in the 2016 Presidential Election. This could be a sign that turnout is set to increase, but there is also the significant factor of the Covid-19 pandemic. In a 2001 article in the American Political Science Review, Michael P. McDonald and Samuel Popkin argued, that at least in the United States, voter turnout since 1972 has not actually declined when calculated for those eligible to vote, what they term the voting-eligible population. ; For only the second time since 1980, the percentage of voters in 2016 who were non-Hispanic white (73.3 percent) was not lower than in the previous presidential election (). At the 2016 election, 245.5 million Americans were of voting age, but only 157.5 million said they registered to vote… The disenfranchisement of most African Americans and many poor whites in the South during the years 1890–1910 likely contributed to the decline in overall voter turnout percentages during those years visible in the chart at the top of the article. Marcus, J., & Krupnick, M. (2017). “Don’t know” and “other” responses not included. [3] The process was peaceful and widely supported, except in Rhode Island. Psychological Review, 50(4), pp. In 2016, Trump won roughly 950,000 votes from LGBT people—14 percent of the total, to the Democrats’ 77 percent. (2008). Around 56 per cent of people – 137.5 million – cast a ballot in the election. CNN. Among their data is a series reporting the total number of persons "registered and eligible to vote." [25] The total increase in VAP between 2008 and 2012 (5,300,000) was the smallest increase since 1964, bucking the modern average of 8,000,000–13,000,000 per cycle. 370–396. 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