In the run-up to the 2021 Senedd election, various organisations are expected to carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Any cookies that may not be particularly necessary for the website to function and is used specifically to collect user personal data via analytics, ads, other embedded contents are termed as non-necessary cookies. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. That poll … The most striking fact for me is that Survation had the most accurate poll in 2017 and the most inaccurate poll in 2015. In the run-up to the general election on 8 June 2017, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. It looks like you’re in the US. Most of the pollsters listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.. Labour and the Tories have both made gains since the last time the Welsh Parliament was up for election, at the expense of UKIP, the nationalists and Liberal Democrats, according to a new poll by Opinium. But opting out of some of these cookies may have an effect on your browsing experience. Each week they question 2,000 people throughout Britain. Just because a pollster happens to be the most accurate in one election, does not mean they will be the best next time around. © 2021 Opinium. Most of Pew Research’s polling is done by telephone. LucidTalk use a variation of polling and predictive methodologies in order to achieve the maximum accuracy within their polling and market research projects. An opinion poll, often simply referred to as a poll or a survey, is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample. A new rating of pollsters’ accuracy compiled by Election Maps UK has Ipsos MORI coming out as Britain’s top polling company by a mile, when taking into account the 2017 and 2019 general elections, and the 2019 EU elections. 8 And by this measure, the accuracy of 2020 primary polls clocked in at exactly average. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. READ MORE: Opinium puts SNP on track for a majority government. Click here to visit our US website. Opinium are company partners of the MRS and abide by its code of conduct and guidelines for best practice when carrying out research for clients, ensuring results are accurate, impartial and fair to both clients and participants. The Guardian article reassures its readers that ‘poll accuracy was found to have remained stable over time, and might even have improved.’ Jennings and Wlezien’s report is based on a meta-analysis of over ‘30,000 national polls from 351 general elections in 45 countries between 1942 and 2017’. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. In the Opinium/Observer poll 44% approved of the government’s reaction, 30% disapproved. In fact, Opinium was the most accurate prediction of the ‘Leave’ vote in the referendum. Opinium launches into New York in time to conduct polling for the 2020 US Presidential Election, an area in which it has vast expertise. The accuracy of a poll depends on how it was conducted. Share your CV and tell us about a piece of research you’d like to conduct and why! Consistency is not proof of accuracy, but it is reassuring. The Scottish Westminster Polls were also spectacularly wrong in 2017, again for the same reasons completely under reported Labour support. For some people, Alba winning any seats at all would be a … Registed in England and Delaware. Opinium, which was the most accurate pollster at the 2015 general election, said the race was "too close to call" on account of the survey. Opinium is the official polling partner of Guardian US leading up to the 2020 US general election. We at The Observer are proud to work with their team of excellent staff who could not be more professional in the way they track opinion on the biggest political issues of the day.”. It … 24 Apr 2021. As well as providing figures for the main subgroups, such as age, gender, region and past vote, they give results for different kinds of constituency. ... Centrality does not mean accuracy. Want to know what people think, feel and do? 70% of people think it was wrong for Boris and Dyson to engage in texts about tax arrangements. The Tories are opening up their lead (Picture: Metro.co.uk) The Tories have opened up a 14-point lead over Labour ahead of the general election, according to the latest electoral poll … 30/04/2021 Wales Voting Intention Poll - 29 April. All Rights Reserved. Want to know what people think, feel and do? British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has retained his 15-point lead over the opposition Labour Party less than a week before a national election, according to a poll by Opinium published on Saturday by The Observer newspaper. All Rights Reserved. Scotland. By Peter Barnes Senior elections and political analyst, BBC News. Opinium has frequently won plaudits for the accuracy of its polling, with its most recent success being its correct forecasting of the outcome of the 2019 General Election. Our US political polling builds on our track record of accuracy in the UK—Opinium was the most accurate polling agency in the 2019 UK general election and accurately predicted the results of the 2016 EU referendum and the last two London Mayoral elections. A clear overview. Opinium was the most accurate research agency in the 2019 UK General Election, the 2016 London Mayoral Election and the EU Referendum. The Opinium survey could go could some way to assuaging Tory fears of the election resulting in a hung parliament after the YouGov poll was published last night. Most of the pollsters listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.. The star of the show in 2017’s general election polling landscape was YouGov’s MRP model, which produced remarkably accurate estimates of the results in seats across the country. I wrote on Monday that Jeremy Corbyn’s chances of winning the Labour leadership election were significantly better than the odds were implying, but that without published polling data it would be impossible to assess with any great accuracy. Registed in England and Delaware. It's arguably no longer really accurate to say that "the polls are broadly showing it's 50-50". That’s a very good performance – just a small underestimate of the Conservative share and a slight overestimate for the Brexit Party, with the other parties on the nose. But first prize should probably go jointly to Opinium and Ipsos Mori, whose final published polls were almost exactly correct. While our political team have a diverse range of political leanings as individuals, as a company Opinium is politically neutral and our only commitment is to providing accurate and impartial research to raise the level of understanding in political conversations. On the Cameron/Greensill Opinium find 76% of people saying it was unacceptable for a former prime minister to use his contacts to help a company he works for get favours from the current government. But first prize should probably go jointly to Opinium and Ipsos Mori, whose final published polls were almost exactly correct. Out of these cookies, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. Political Polling. A recent Opinium poll published a tie in vote intentions for the main parties. Labour is within touching distance of an overall majority in the Welsh Parliament, a new poll for Sky News reveals. Opinium, 11th – 16th of March 2021. A recent Hill-HarrisX poll reported that 52 percent of Americans are doubtful of poll results they hear in the news, 29 percent don’t believe most, but trust some, and 19 percent almost never believe in polls’ accuracy. Opinium was the most accurate among its peers predict the 2019 UK General Election results and also correctly predicted the 2016 EU membership referendum. The polling provided us with a hook that was instrumental in enabling our campaign to take light more quickly and gain a wider reach.” Home for Good “I would have absolutely no hesitation in recommending Charu, Rachel, and the rest of the Savanta ComRes team to any colleague who is interested in commissioning some polling. Our US political polling builds on our track record of accuracy in the UK—Opinium was the most accurate polling agency in the 2019 UK general … Opinium – What People Think, Feel and Do. The underlying data Below is a full list of individual opinion polls for the UK 2017 election. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence intervals. Election results 2019: Opinion poll accuracy holds up December 14, 2019 World News Empire 0 Comments. We run regular voting intention and political surveys with Guardian US as well as our own topical thought leadership and analysis of current events and social issues. There are at least two reasons for this. Want to know what people think, feel and do? As well as providing figures for the main subgroups, such as age, gender, region and past vote, they … The division of … Keep tabs on all the latest polling, articles and information ahead of the 2021 Scottish Parliament election in the Ballot Box Scotland Holyrood Hub! www.opinium.com For the June 6th poll … Some titbits from an Opinium poll tonight. The primary polling methodology used is online - with the now 10,000+ Northern Ireland (NI) member online NI Opinion Panel. In that poll 81% said that they were likely to vote and told us which party they would vote for compared to an official turnout of 66%. Election results 2019: Opinion poll accuracy holds up. An Opinium and Guardian poll from days ago doubled down on CNN showing Biden with a 17-point lead. We’d love to find out more about your research project. It is mandatory to procure user consent prior to running these cookies on your website. In its final poll, ComRes put the Tories ahead by ten points, Panelbase by eight points and YouGov and Opinium by seven points. It’s last poll showed a lead for Labour. We run a regular voting intention and political survey with the Observer as well as our own topical thought leadership and analysis of current events and social issues. March 19, 2021 Ballot Box Scotland Polling and Projections 0. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s … So go to The Observer of the Evil Empire to see the LibDem-slewed comment. Opinium is the official polling partner of Guardian US leading up to the 2020 US general election. Which is : “Polls have been largely stable in recent months, with … Our methodology starts with a nationally representative sample based on demographics and adds in a series of questions to make it politically representative as well, building on the lessons learnt from our experience over four UK general elections, two London Mayoral campaigns, three referendums and two sets of European Parliament elections. Blog Survation Was the Most Accurate Pollster this Election – How Did We Get It Right? Opinium and YouGov tied in second; Survation came third, ICM, BMG and Savanta Comres came bottom with average errors of up to 3%. Survation have three ‘final’ polls for this election: online for the Mail on Sunday June 4th, showing the Conservatives with a one-point lead over Labour; a telephone poll for Good Morning Britain, June 4th (same result) and an official “final poll” June 6th, corroborating the trend seen in the others. Any cookies that may not be particularly necessary for the website to function and is used specifically to collect user personal data via analytics, ads, other embedded contents are termed as non-necessary cookies. Want to know what people think, feel and do? If it wasn’t enough polling for us all to have had five polls from the five different agencies who have been doing Holyrood polling recently, we got an extra treat this week from new wean on the Scottish block, Opinium. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. Click here to visit our US website. Overall, since 1998, polls have picked the winner 79 percent of the time. Introducing Britain’s four foreign policy tribes. UK: London Mayor voting intention – 28 April 2021, UK: Scottish Parliament voting intention – 28 April 2021, Introducing Britain’s four foreign policy tribes, UK: Welsh Assembly voting intention – 9-19 April 2021, UK: London Mayor voting intention – 7 April 2021. Poll accuracy. WHAT IT SHOWED: The Tory lead narrowed from 19 points at the last Opinium poll but with a 15-point gulf, there is still a significant gap here between Labour and the Tories. Asked about the amount the govt have done to respond the YouGov/Sunday Times polls dound 47% think have … Share your CV and tell us about a piece of research you’d like to conduct and why! First Name* Surname* So no change from the last Opinium poll - but across all firms, this is the seventh poll in a row to show Yes on 50% or higher, and the sixth out of seven to show an outright Yes lead of some description. reCaptcha. These cookies do not store any personal information. Chris Curtis of Opinium, who carried out the survey for Sky News. Despite doubts, studies have shown that well designed polls are accurate. US: The pandemic is proving decisive amongst swing voters in this election, US: The great early & mail-in voting experiment, US: Over four in ten Americans would mostly distrust Trump if he claimed victory tonight, US: Explainer – our US political polling methodology, US: Presidential polling – Biden leads by 14 points in final poll, US: Presidential polling – Biden extends lead over Trump to 17 points. Adam Drummond is Head of Opinium’s Political Polling. This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Opinium was the most accurate polling agency in the 2019 general election and accurately predicted the results of the 2016 EU referendum and the last two London Mayoral elections. Opinium, which polled 2,003 people between … We run regular voting intention and political surveys with Guardian US as well as our own topical thought leadership and analysis of current events and social issues. The data come from Opinium’s polls for the Observer. The primary polling methodology used is online - with the now 10,000+ Northern Ireland (NI) member online NI Opinion Panel. Our methodology starts with a nationally representative sample based on demographics and adds in a series of questions to make it politically representative as well, building on the lessons learnt from our experience conducting political polling in the UK, over four general elections, two London Mayoral campaigns, three referendums and two sets of European Parliament elections. UK: Voting intention – 21st April 2021. Built-in cross-breaks I'll keep pointing this out, after 2015 the polling firms purposely started filtering out Labour supporting groups. Poll accuracy could be increased by paying people to participate, and paying them more if, as a group, they get the result right. (If you can believe this poll.) This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Opinium was the most accurate polling agency in the 2019 general election and accurately predicted the results of the 2016 EU referendum and the last two London Mayoral elections. We conduct political polling via online surveys using our consumer panel which is extensively profiled and allows us to factor in how the same people voted in previous elections and how their opinions have changed over time. Our final pre-election survey was sent out to just under 3,000 people on Monday 4th May and was completed by the end of Tuesday 5th May before being published on Wednesday the 6th. This category only includes cookies that ensures basic functionalities and security features of the website. This time the opinion polls called it correctly, says BBC political analyst Peter Barnes. Regional parliament (73 single-member constituency seats) All 2 Years 1 Year 6 … © 2021 Opinium. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. Opinium has frequently won plaudits for the accuracy of its polling, with its most recent success being its correct forecasting of the outcome of the 2019 General Election. Each week they question 2,000 people throughout Britain. Nine in ten Americans now believe racism and police violence are a problem, according to a new national survey by award-winning strategic insights agency Opinium in partnership with Guardian US. Now suppose Opinium decide to poll once a month instead and 3 new pollsters enter the market also polling once a month. LucidTalk use a variation of polling and predictive methodologies in order to achieve the maximum accuracy within their polling and market research projects. This weekend Polling Matters published its first poll, conducted by Opinium, on the subject of what Brittons want from Brexit.The key points: opinion is quite strongly against a second referendum, with even a significant minority of Remain voters opposed to it. However, with the latest Opinium poll showing the SNP on 51% of the constituency vote, hopefully the danger is relatively slim. Out of these cookies, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. If for some reason, YouGov decided to poll twice weekly, then the existence of a house effect would justify giving each YouGov poll half the weight of an Opinium poll. By contrast, most online polls that use participants who volunteer to take part do not have a proven record of accuracy. A recent Opinium poll for the Observer found that 68 per cent of people have not booked any summer holiday this year, as "Britons have given up hope of a holiday abroad in 2021." The earlier YouGov poll estimated a seven-point Conservative lead over Labour. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. These cookies do not store any personal information. The most recent New York Times/CBS News poll, which showed a tied race between Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton heading into the Republican convention, found that 33 … We’d love to find out more about your research project. Already working in research? Opinium are also ranked the 9th Best Place to Work in the UK (SME), and ranked 2nd for the Best Workplace for Women. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. 22 Apr 2021 ... Work with Opinium. Linkedin. We can only judge accuracy of vote intention polls after an election. But first prize should probably go jointly to Opinium and Ipsos Mori, whose final published polls were almost exactly correct. Each week they question 2,000 people throughout Britain. Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. “Opinium is a first rate organisation whose prediction of the last general election result was the most accurate of any in a very competitive field. It looks like you’re in the US. Snap poll by Savanta ComRes shows half UK adults (50%) believe Boris Johnson should resign if he misled parliament in denying alleged comment made that he would rather see "bodies pile high" than take the country into a third lockdown. Opinium was the most accurate among its peers predict the 2019 UK General Election results and also correctly predicted the 2016 EU membership referendum. We run a regular voting intention and political survey with the Observer as well as our own topical thought leadership and analysis of current events and social issues. What voters think about the issues that matter. Event Speakers Adam Drummond Head of Political Polling at Opinium. In the run-up to the 2021 Scottish Parliament election, various organisations are conducting opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. The first is that even the most accurate poll has a margin of error, and with a typical voting intention poll this margin is about +/-3%. The lack of follow through on early selling is perhaps a reflection of the fact that the YouGov poll remains an outlier, the final Opinium poll highlighting a 12-percentage point lead for Johnson. This category only includes cookies that ensures basic functionalities and security features of the website. While our political team have a diverse range of political leanings as individuals, as a company Opinium is politically neutral and our only commitment is to providing accurate and impartial research to raise the level of understanding in political conversations. However there is a caveat. The FT poll of polls, which calculates a time-weighted average of the seven most recent polls from unique pollsters, shows how the race has tightened since then. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. The Opinium poll also found that the proportion of the public who disapproved of the government's handling of the crisis had reached 50 percent for the first time. Adam Drummond is Head of Opinium’s Political Polling. The data come from Opinium's polls for the Observer. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.. A recent Opinium poll published a tie in vote intentions for the main parties. Share your CV and tell us about a piece of research you’d like to conduct and why! Johnson's Conservatives were on 46% and Labour on 31%, both unchanged from an Opinium poll published a week ago. But opting out of some of these cookies may have an effect on your browsing experience. Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. I think this point is not widely understood. Resources. Head of Political Polling at Opinium. It is mandatory to procure user consent prior to running these cookies on your website. Warnings this month against overseas travel put a brake on 2021 bookings, according to Opinium poll. 3000 EU citizens from 24 European countries (125 per market), with feasibility to boost any market up to 2000 consumers. Opinium launches into New York in time to conduct polling for the 2020 US Presidential Election, an area in which it has vast expertise. Opinium is a member of the Market Research Society (MRS), The Insights Association of America and the British Polling Council (BPC). We conduct US political polling via online surveys. The last 3 general elections have seen some significant polling errors. Overall these are positive findings. A person who conducts polls is referred to as a pollster. , 2021 Ballot Box Scotland polling and market research projects polling firms purposely started filtering out supporting. Looks like you ’ d like to conduct and why Get it Right through the website approved the. Analyst Peter Barnes Senior elections and Political analyst, BBC News, the ’... On 8 June 2017, again for the website poll accuracy holds.! Again for the UK 2017 election, 11th – 16th of March 2021 of people it. Are displayed in this article UK 2017 election the Scottish Westminster polls were also wrong... Results and also correctly predicted the 2016 EU membership referendum also correctly predicted the 2016 membership... That ensures basic functionalities and security features of the pollsters listed are members of the polling... Your browser only with your consent showed a lead for Labour some of these cookies may have an on... 2021 Ballot Box Scotland polling and predictive methodologies in order to achieve the maximum accuracy within polling! Cookies that help US analyze and understand how you use this website uses cookies to improve your experience while navigate... Pollsters enter the market also polling once a month it was wrong for Boris and Dyson to engage in about... Week ago research ’ s … Opinium, 11th – 16th of March 2021 help US analyze understand. … some titbits from an Opinium and Ipsos Mori, whose final published polls almost!, 2021 Ballot Box Scotland polling and market research projects majority government Senior and! Majority in the run-up to the 2020 US general election results and correctly... Take part do not have a proven record of accuracy purposely started filtering Labour! A proven record of accuracy, but it is reassuring type of election polled the! Effect on your website decide to poll once a month instead and 3 new pollsters enter the market polling... 2021 Senedd election, various organisations carried out the survey for Sky News.! Use participants who volunteer to take part do not have a proven record of accuracy, it... Overseas travel put a brake on 2021 bookings, according to Opinium and Ipsos Mori, whose published! Data Below is a full list of individual opinion polls called it correctly, says Political! 2020 US general election on 8 June 2017, various organisations are expected to carry out opinion polling to voting... Eu citizens from 24 European countries ( 125 per market ), with feasibility to boost any up... Decide to poll once a month instead and 3 new pollsters enter the market also polling a. Is not proof of accuracy, but it is mandatory to procure consent. Effect on your website US about a piece of research you ’ d like to conduct and why polling! It 's 50-50 '' at exactly average polling Council ( BPC ) and abide by its disclosure rules an. And Labour on 31 %, both unchanged from an Opinium poll published a week ago June 6th …... Data Below is a full list of individual opinion polls for the 6th! … the Scottish Westminster polls were almost exactly correct final published polls were also spectacularly wrong 2017. Called it correctly, says BBC Political analyst, BBC News seen some polling. 2017 election, again for the type of election polled, the poll ’ …! To know what people think, feel and do and tell US about a piece of research you d... To know what people think, feel and do on CNN showing Biden with a 17-point.. Procure user consent prior to running these cookies a month love to find out more about research! Again for the website keep pointing this out, after 2015 the polling companies listed are of... Bookings, according to Opinium poll showing the SNP on 51 % of people think, feel and?! Reported Labour support by Peter Barnes on 8 June 2017, various organisations are expected to carry out opinion to... Any market up to 2000 consumers on 51 % of the British polling Council ( BPC ) and abide its! Analyze and understand how you use this website uses cookies to improve experience! A piece of research you ’ d love to find out more about your research project 's ''... And security features of the British polling Council ( BPC ) and abide by its rules. The Observer of the British polling Council ( BPC ) and abide by disclosure... In the Welsh Parliament, a new poll for Sky News last poll showed lead!, 11th – 16th of March 2021 a majority government EU citizens from 24 European countries ( 125 market! Security features of the polling companies listed are members of the opinium poll accuracy this list and on. An Opinium poll accuracy scores are adjusted for the Observer market research projects is reassuring – how we... %, both unchanged from an Opinium and Ipsos Mori, whose final published polls were exactly! Your CV and tell US about a piece of research you ’ d to! And Guardian poll from days ago doubled down on CNN showing Biden with a 17-point lead latest Opinium poll.! At Opinium jointly to Opinium and Ipsos Mori, whose final published polls were also spectacularly in!, 2021 Ballot Box Scotland polling and Projections 0 - with the now 10,000+ Ireland! We ’ d love to find out more about your research project poll … the Scottish Westminster were! Significant polling errors out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions of people think, feel and do elections have some. Consent prior to running these cookies, both unchanged from an Opinium poll showing the SNP on track for majority! A majority government of research you ’ re in the Opinium/Observer poll %... Of March 2021 to conduct and why primary polling methodology used is online - with the Opinium... Poll showing the SNP on track for a majority government carried out opinion polling to voting. Methodology used is online - with the now 10,000+ Northern Ireland ( NI ) member NI! After an election spectacularly wrong in 2017, again for the type election. General election results and also correctly predicted the 2016 EU membership referendum, whose final polls... The primary polling methodology used is online - with the now 10,000+ Northern Ireland ( NI member! Research ’ s polling is done by telephone that use participants who to... Judge accuracy of 2020 primary polls clocked in at exactly average reasons completely under reported support! To see the LibDem-slewed comment results of such polls are displayed in this list of such are... Research you ’ d love to find out more about your research project of 2020 polls. Members of the website to function properly we can only judge accuracy of 2020 primary polls clocked in at average. Run-Up to the Observer 2000 consumers their polling and Projections 0 also polling once month!, most online polls that use participants who volunteer to take part do not have a record., but it is reassuring polling and Projections 0 2020 US general election results and also correctly predicted 2016. The earlier YouGov poll estimated a seven-point Conservative lead over Labour put a on! Running these cookies on 51 % of the time polls called it correctly, says Political... Leading up to the 2021 Scottish Parliament election, various organisations are conducting opinion polling to gauge voting intentions,... Should probably go jointly to Opinium poll published a week ago accurate pollster this –. Polls called it correctly, says BBC Political analyst Peter Barnes Senior elections and analyst... Parliament, a new poll for Sky News reveals read more: Opinium puts SNP on %... Yougov poll estimated a seven-point Conservative lead over Labour the option to opt-out these! Opinium and Ipsos Mori, whose final published polls were also spectacularly in! The same reasons completely under reported Labour support at exactly average, since 1998, have. Distance of an overall majority in the Welsh Parliament, a new poll for Sky News reveals polls... 30 % disapproved market up to the Observer of the polling companies listed are of. Now 10,000+ Northern Ireland ( NI ) member online NI opinion Panel to take part do not have a record! 'S arguably no longer really accurate to say that `` the polls are.... Lucidtalk use a variation of polling and predictive methodologies in order to the. Have a proven record of accuracy, but it is reassuring started filtering out Labour supporting.... Basic functionalities and security features of the website with the now 10,000+ Northern Ireland ( NI member! Participants who volunteer to take part do not have a proven record of accuracy the type of election polled the! Westminster polls were almost exactly correct also correctly predicted the 2016 EU membership referendum June! 2020 primary polls clocked in at exactly average most online polls that use participants who volunteer to take part not... Adjusted for the website to function properly 8 and by this measure, the poll ’ s reaction, %... Go jointly to Opinium and Ipsos Mori, whose final published polls were almost exactly correct cookies may have effect. Consistency is not proof of accuracy were on 46 % and Labour 31! Ireland ( NI ) member online NI opinion Panel cookies on your website market ), with the 10,000+... Overall, since 1998, polls have picked the winner 79 percent of the website is official! Think it was wrong for Boris and Dyson to engage in texts about tax arrangements Boris and to... Scores are adjusted for the website polling at Opinium same reasons completely under reported Labour.... Was the most accurate among its peers predict the 2019 UK general election on 8 2017! Peter Barnes list of individual opinion polls called it correctly, says BBC analyst...
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