The R range for England is 0.8 to 1.0 and the growth rate range for England is -5% to -1% per day as of 23 April 2021. This uncertainty may be due to variability in the underlying data, leading to a wider range for R and more frequent changes in the estimates. Predicting UK coronavirus infection levels A tiny fluctuation in rates of transmission today could have a huge effect on how long it takes for Covid-19 to die out. As a result, UK estimates of the R value and growth rate will no longer be produced. The R value and growth rates are estimated by several independent modelling groups based in universities and Public Health England (PHE). The R range for the UK is 0.7 to 1.1 and the growth rate range is -5% to 0% per day as of 29 January 2021. We’d like to set additional cookies to understand how you use GOV.UK, remember your settings and improve government services. The higher R is above 1, the more people 1 infected person infects and so the faster the epidemic grows. Neither one measure, R nor growth rate, is better than the other but each provide information that is useful in monitoring the spread of a disease. These estimates do not yet fully reflect any very recent changes in transmission due to, for example, recent policy changes in the UK. The R rate for Wales remains higher than that of England according to the latest figures. The R value and growth rates for the 4 nations and NHS England regions are more robust and useful metrics than those for the whole UK. Updates to the R rate are published on the government website. Estimates of the R value and growth rates are updated on a regular basis. If a virus has an R rate of three, it means that every sick person will pass the disease on to three other people if no containment measures are introduced. This could happen when only a very small proportion of people are infected, or the geographical area considered has a very small population. All content is available under the Open Government Licence v3.0, except where otherwise stated, Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, number of people currently infected with coronavirus (, See further detail on how estimates of the, Coronavirus (COVID-19) statistics and analysis, Coronavirus (COVID-19): guidance and support, Transparency and freedom of information releases, the number of new infections of the disease identified during a specified time period (incidence), the proportion of the population that test positive for the disease in the community at any given point in time (positivity rate or prevalence). The R range for the UK is 0.7 to 0.9 and the growth rate range is -5% to -3% per day as of 5 March 2021. This will happen for both R and the growth rate. The R number range for the UK is 0.7-0.9 as of 29 May 2020. Estimates of growth rate for geographies smaller than regional level are less reliable and it is more appropriate to identify local hotspots through, for example, monitoring numbers of cases, hospitalisations, and deaths. Given the increasingly localised approach to managing the epidemic, particularly between nations, UK-level estimates are less meaningful than previously and may not accurately reflect the current picture of the epidemic. The R number range for the UK is 0.8-1.0 and the growth rate range is -3% to -1% per day as of 4 December 2020. The R number range for the UK is 0.7-0.9 and the growth rate range is -4% to -2% as of 25 June 2020. The size of the growth rate indicates the speed of change. In Leicester, the first to experience intervention, the rate is down by 27%. The R number range for the UK is 0.9-1.1 and the growth rate range is -2% to +1% per day as of 28 August 2020. The R number range for the UK is 0.8-0.9 and the growth rate range is -1% to -4% as of 31 July 2020. The R range for England is 0.8 to 1.1 and the growth rate range for England is -4% to -1% per day as of 30 April 2021. The most likely true values are somewhere within the ranges. To inquire about a licence to reproduce material, visit our Syndication site. The R number range for the UK is 1.2-1.5 and the growth rate range is +4% to +9% per day as of 9 October 2020. The latest ranges for R values and growth rates in the devolved administrations are published on their respective websites: UK estimates of R and growth rate are averages over different epidemiological situations and should be regarded as a guide to the general trend rather than a description of the epidemic state. An R value of 1 means that on average every person who is infected will infect 1 other person, meaning the total number of infections is stable. The R number range for the UK is 0.7-0.9 and the growth rate range is -5% to -2% as of 10 July 2020. When there are low case numbers or a high degree of variability in transmission across regions, the estimates are insufficiently robust to inform policy decisions. Nationally, the government has been quoting the R number as being within a range of up to 0.9 for some weeks. Trafford is a metropolitan borough of Greater Manchester, England, with an estimated population of 235,493 in 2017. The R range for the UK is 0.7 to 0.9 and the growth rate range is -5% to -2% per day as of 12 February 2021. The line will be open Monday to Friday, 8.30am to 5.30pm. The R number range for the UK is 1.1-1.3 and the growth rate range is +1% to +6% per day as of 23 December 2020. However the latest analysis shows two regions have now just tipped over into territory where the virus could begin to spread exponentially - this is the North West, and the South West which has a rate of 1.00. R is an average value that can vary in different parts of the country, communities, and subsections of the population. The UK estimates of R and growth rate are averages over different epidemiological situations and should be regarded as a guide to the general trend rather than a description of the epidemic state. According to the Government website, the current R rate in London is around 1.1-1.3. The R number range for the UK is 0.9-1.1 and the growth rate range is -1% to +2% per day as of 4 September 2020. Not all groups submit model estimates for all geographical areas considered. Read more about our community response hubs. This does not necessarily mean the epidemic is increasing in that region, just that the uncertainty means it cannot be ruled out. The R range for the UK is 0.6 to 0.9 and the growth rate range is -6% to -3% per day as of 19 March 2021. No UK estimates for R and growth rate have been agreed by SAGE this week. 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