Because of the staggered nature of Senate elections and their 6 year terms in which they do not sit for re-election in the midterm immediately after the president's election. What is an example of solid seats for Republicans in the House? A. People recognize the importance of the election and are paying attention to what is happening, and thus they become "activated.". The senatorial term is six years, and every two years one-third of the Senate stands for election. Senators are required to have nine years’ standing as citizens and be at least thirty years old when sworn in. The party that has more seats in the U.S. House for the state (I think?? Parties are much more evenly matched support-wise today than they were in the past, and as a result, the margins by which parties receive majorities in the House and Senate, as well as the margins of victory in presidential elections, are smaller. Those in Congress – be they Senators or Representatives – are in the situation of having split loyalties. What are some examples of political favors? Senators are chosen in statewide elections held in even-numbered years. But once he started to make decisions, such as appointing Donna Shalala to be Secretary of Health and Human Services, or his decision to reform healthcare, people became disappointed. Sort by: Top Voted. Typically, high-profile members of the president's administration would be travelling the country right now in order to visit different congressional districts that are competitive in order to help give their party the edge, but there is no evidence of Trump's administration doing anything like this yet other than Trump and Pence. [15] In much of the South, which began to vote overwhelmingly Republican in presidential elections during the 1960s and 1970s, Democrats were still commonly elected to the House and Senate. It is more effective for GOTV efforts to be conducted at the party level than if individual candidates do it without help from the party, and thus the party conducts these efforts as reinforcement for their candidates' GOTV efforts. Does he support his party’s Congressmen who might suffer at the polls as a result of local issues ? What is the significance of the election of 2014? Medium-term factors because they are factors that change during a given election, but are not within the control of candidates. 1. An election in which the party in the White House and the majority party in the House and Senate maintains the status quo as the party in power. Incumbents win 85% of the time in the Senate and there are more Democrat incumbents running than Republican incumbents. Disgust in politics, especially after 2016; and young voters' beliefs that the two-party system is not the best option for the U.S. What elections did Theriault talk about besides those of which were critical elections? Voter turnout. Are they loyal to those who vote for them? Cruz (TX), Heller (NV), McSally (AR) Republican-held open seat in TN. What is the explanation for why Democrats gained seats in 1998's midterm elections rather than lost seats? What is the historical trend for split-ticket voting? What is his significance after the Election of 1980? The 1958 election, in which an infusion of new liberal Democrats entered the Democratic Party, permanently upsetting their balance between conservative and liberal Democrats. How do parties effect congressional campaigns through the means of campaign management? How was it in 2016? What does the constitution say about parties? What does Theriault consider to be one of the best political ads ever? Because many young voters "felt the bern," as his message resonated with them significantly. What were the national figures for youth party identification compared to our class? 03:35 Now some candidates are billionaires and can finance their own campaigns. What were the trends in ideological and party identification for young voters in 2012 and 2016? How did the 1958 Election disrupt the Democratic Party? How do parties effect congressional campaigns through the means of GOTV efforts? The coalition of individuals who are disappointed with the president's decisions while in office and as a result, they decide to vote against the president's party come midterms. It set a precedent for parties receiving legal challenges for how they carry out the nomination system, subjecting them to high levels of scrutiny. How did the election of 1994 fundamentally change politics? 2000 – general election victory but many questioned the validity of the result and for a while the electoral system of America was questioned. Who is Walter D. Burnam and what is his significance? The result was that Bush now has a Republican controlled House and Senate. What does it mean when one says that critical elections bring about major change in policies brought forward after the election? 16% - This could have been significant in that this is even bigger margin than it was in a good year for Democrats, 2008. Why? Why was age an important demographic to watch for the 2018 election? Per the Supreme Court decision in U.S. Email. The theory that the only way we can express our dissatisfaction with the president is by voting against his party in the midterm elections. Yet in the 1956 general election, Eisenhower was re-elected with a larger percentage vote – 58%. One major factor influencing the outcome of congressional elections is the advantage that incumbent candidates have over challengers; incumbents are typically much better funded and are better recognized by voters; plus, they participate in deciding the boundaries of voting districts. Why or why not? Because if the figures for youth turnout were like they were in 2008, then it would be a good night for Democrats; if the figures for youth turnout were like they were in 2014, then it would be a good night for Republicans. Our class has a much higher proportion of individuals who have thought about running for elective office on multiple occasions. have fixed terms. There are still some judgeship elections that are non-partisan, the mayor of Austin is non-partisan (though he is affiliated with the Democratic party), city council elections are non-partisan, etc. What percentage chance did Nate Silver give for Republicans to take the Senate, and what was his prediction for each party's number of seats? How was Reagan able to unify the Republican Party? Congressional elections are decided by direct vote, meaning that the candidate who wins the most votes in the state or district wins the election. Johnson wins the presidency in a landslide against Barry Goldwater, while the Democrats picked up 37 seats in the House. But the House of Representatives had a Democrat Party majority. He got two results wrong (Donnelly and Nelson). The president's party loses on average 24 seats, the exact number of seats that Democrats needed to take control of the House. How does one become minority leader of the House? Many factors influence voters during presidential elections. What were the results of the toss-up house races as of 11/8? 1. 2. Two theories have been put forward to explain the way people vote in Congressional elections. The political patronage problem became worse and worse. She was a Republican Senatorial candidate in Delaware who defeated the incumbent Mike Castle in the Republican Primary, but put a terrible candidacy together overall, resulting in Democrats winning a seat that no one thought they could win. What are critical (realigning) elections? Thomas Jefferson, a Democratic-Republican, won the presidential election and took the White House from the Federalists. This was considered a perfect medium because on one hand, it is extremely difficult for the same party to maintain unified control of government over the course of two full presidencies due to trends in US Party politics, and thus it is more reasonable for the cutoff to be at the midterms of the second president who is of the same party as the president who won the critical election to begin with. Another issue that plays a part in Congressional elections is the so-called “coat tail effect”. What mistake is Keynes referring to? This would end up projecting Jackson to victory in 1828. Why is it still improbable that Beto beats Cruz in November despite the fact that the election is a toss-up? The percentage of split-ticket voters has always been low, but in the 80s of split-ticket voting than there are now. What did their candidacies result in? What must occur in order for candidates to begin to recognize the interests of young people? Because they were the wrong candidates in the wrong states. Because it takes time to determine whether or not the elections can be considered any of these, so we can only make these designations accurately in hindsight. Why are Trump's e-mail lists particularly important in these midterms? What is the most interesting thing about the election of 2000 that makes it significant? He began to rise quickly in the ranks of the party after his election in 1980 by galvanizing Republicans and convincing them that the Republican Party needed to become more confrontational in their politics. An exam created to prevent appointees being appointed purely based on loyalty to party and instead based on credentials. This refers to the occurrence after a critical election in which the party in power puts new policies into place. How many characteristics did Mayhew (or it might've been Burnam) come up with when describing critical elections? What reasons does political science give us for not having a critical election since 1932? Can a midterm be a critical election? This is no guarantee that it will be a mere rubber stamp for presidential recommendations but with the nation still at ‘war’ and with foreign policy a dominant issue, it is probable that both Congress and President will work together. On average, women typically poll in favor of Democrats while figures for men show that they favor Republicans. The mid-term elections can put the president in a very difficult position. As a result, Clay gave the presidency to Adams instead of Jackson. The 1974 election, in which the liberal faction of the Democratic Party was reinforced by a second wave of new liberal Democrats entering Congress. Who is Newt Gingrich? [3] Patsy Mink (a), a Japanese American from Hawaii, was the first Asian American woman elected to the House of Representatives. Trump weighed in on offshore drilling in Florida in a manner that would help Republican candidates. Why did Democrats do so well in the election of 2008? One of the systematic political science explanations given to us in class for not having a critical election since 1932 was a lack of big events. Non-white women poll as being much more Democratic than white women, who are actually more Republican on average. What explanations do political scientists give for the fact that in presidential elections, the president's party does well and then in midterm elections, his party performs poorly? They lost so many seats in the 1994 election that there just weren't any more seats for them to lose, so the only way to go was up. He is the last president to have been considered to run his campaign from his porch, as he did not travel the nation while he was campaigning. Parties in the government are more polarized because the elected officials of opposite parties are more polarized than individuals in the electorate. These are held mid-way (two years) through a president’s term in office and are called mid-term elections. Why is the Election of 1800 considered a critical election? This means that the party overperformed in a presidential election. They help out their party candidates by conducting opposition research for them. The figures for the percentage of young liberals increased, while the figure for young voters who identify with the Democratic party decreased. 1. Describe specifics of what the Pendleton Act did. Most presidents start out at high approval rating and popularity, and thus in their election their party performs better in congressional elections due to coattail effects. How were Nick Silver's predictions with regards to how many seats each party got in the Senate? For example, you'd want to look into Gingrich's papers to understand the reason for why his agenda was too far right for Americans, which ended the possibility for a secular realigning election. Currently, who are some prominent figures of the parties in government? where elections are called by govt at time of its choosing B. What is a legitimate reason for these differences? Because they watch debates at a lower rate than older people, they don't watch the news as much as older people, they read newspapers at a lower rate, etc. There was a change in party power to the Republicans. In 1952, the Republican Eisenhower got 56% of the votes in the general election. Why did the Democrats lose so many House seats in 2010? What is interesting about William McKinley? What was part of the reason for why Club for Growth candidates were not good candidates in 2010 and 2012, resulting in the Republican Party being unable to obtain majority of Senate until 2014 when less of them were general election candidates? What does it mean that the Pendleton Act banned political assessments? 1. What are the president's indirect effects on congressional elections considered and why? It was said that he has "short coattails" because his party actually lost seats in Congress even though he won the presidential election. What does a general increase in attention to issues refer to as a characteristic of critical elections? This tilt resulted in a lot of African-Americans realigning to support the Democratic Party, while white Southerners realigned to the Republican Party. As of class on 11/8, what was the seat make-up of the House? What percentage of the two party vote did Trump receive from the youth age group (18-29)? What does Theriault consider to be fundamental to understanding politics today? Voters feel like there is a lot of stake in the election and thus they turnout at higher rates, making some seats that are ordinarily considered safe more competitive. The republicans finally learned their lesson in that they nominated better, more mainstream candidates rather than Tea Party candidates, which resulted in them gaining majority in Senate (net gain of 9 seats) and maintained majority in the House (net gain of 11 seats). The indications seemed to show that there was public condemnation of Clinton’s actions but as they were not of political importance or did not affect national security, they were not for the public domain. How did Gooden perform in the primaries in TX-5? He already had a Republican-dominated Congress and his problems with regards to Monica Lewinsky and the Starr inquiry could have had a devastating impact on the Democrats. What is the difference between a critical election and a deviating election? Why are young voters less informed about politics? That the opposite occurred is almost certainly unique to these elections. What caused more women, African-Americans, and Hispanics to win election in 1992? Describe the significance of the 1828 election besides the fact that it was a critical election. Every two years, the voters of each district choose a representative for Congress. It was a deviating election because the party in power at the presidential level switched. 2. In the 2012 general election, 80 percent of the candidates endorsed by EMILY’s List won a seat. For what reasons might one have believed that Democrats would take control of the Senate? The mainstream candidates and then the more conservative Club for Growth. Why did it take until 2014 for Republicans to win back the Senate despite winning the House in 2010? Campaigningin politics is the act of running for office. The higher the approval rating of the president, the better his party performs. Other scenarios can occur. The Democrats took control of the House, which led to Nancy Pelosi becoming the first female Speaker of the House, as well as the Senate, which came as a surprise to everyone. Thus, the party's issue positions help candidates develop their own positions on different issues. According to the Cook Report's final updates, how many toss-up seats in the House did the Democrats need to win in order to take majority? What are the general trends regarding youth turnout? The mid-terms present a president with a difficult balancing act. What do parties in the electorate refer to? Because Jeb Hansarling decided to retire, and he knew that congressional seats do not open up very often, so it was his best chance at getting into the House. Why was Reagan's "its morning again" ad effective? can help candidates target their efforts more efficiently through the means of lists that are provided to them by the party. Generally, citizens liked them enough to vote for them previously, and, unless something drastic has happened, those positive feelings haven’t changed. He helped to establish the conservative movement that comes about and gains full fruition during the Reagan elections. 2) have been a US citizen for at least 7 years. Thus, its difficult for parties to get an edge up on each other. Organizations that are ultimately responsible for the nomination process of candidates. How accurate were Cook Report's predictions for House races? It was the Year of the Woman, in which 13 new African-Americans, 6 new Hispanics, and 20 new women elected to Congress. 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